Update as of June 25, 2026: Hormuz Shows Signs of Resuming Traffic, but Risks Are Not Over

As of June 25, 2026, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has recorded new developments. A number of vessels have started moving again through international coordination mechanisms, including an initiative by the International Maritime Organization to support vessels trapped in the Gulf region in leaving the strait safely.

Some temporary routes have also been opened to assist vessels in moving out of the affected area. However, for import-export businesses, the key issue is not simply whether some vessels have resumed movement, but whether the entire transport corridor is stable, safe, and predictable enough for commercial planning.

According to international updates on June 24–25, vessel traffic through Hormuz has increased compared with the peak period of tension, but remains significantly lower than pre-conflict levels. In addition, many vessels are still trapped in the Gulf, movement still depends on safety instructions, and risks related to maritime security, war risk insurance, port access, AIS signal disruption, sailing schedules, and additional surcharges still need to be closely monitored.

This highlights an important reality: a route being reopened does not mean the supply chain has returned to normal.

For Vietnamese businesses, especially those shipping to Europe, the Middle East, Africa, South Asia, or markets connected to Gulf-related transport corridors, this is the time to shift from a reactive mindset to a more flexible logistics planning approach.

From a Maritime Chokepoint to a Structural Supply Chain Risk

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategic chokepoints in global trade, especially for energy flows, industrial goods, and shipping connections between Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and Africa.

When instability occurs in this region, the impact does not stop at a few vessels waiting, rerouting, or temporarily suspending their journeys. The risks can spread across multiple layers of logistics cost and operations:

• Sea freight rates may fluctuate rapidly.
• Risk surcharges, emergency surcharges, and war risk insurance may increase.
• Vessel schedules, ETA, and booking reliability may become harder to predict.
• Alternative transshipment ports may face greater pressure.
• Urgent cargo may shift to air freight, increasing pressure on air cargo capacity.
• Businesses may incur additional warehousing, container detention, demurrage, or late delivery costs.
• Commercial contracts, insurance terms, and delivery responsibilities may become new areas of risk.

At the webinar “Re-routing Supply Chains through the Middle East Volatility,” organized by EuroCham on June 23, 2026, VLA representatives emphasized that volatility in the Middle East, particularly in relation to the Strait of Hormuz, should not be viewed merely as a route disruption or a temporary sea freight issue.

The bigger concern is that logistics risk is becoming structural, affecting transport routing, commercial contracts, insurance, inventory, logistics costs, and the ability to fulfill delivery commitments to customers.

The New Question for Businesses: Not Just “How Much Is the Freight Rate?”

In a stable market, businesses often prioritize competitive freight rates, suitable vessel schedules, and reasonable transit times. However, when the Middle East situation changes continuously, asking only “How much is the freight rate?” is no longer enough.

Businesses now need to ask more practical questions:

• Will this route remain stable over the next 2–4 weeks?
• Is there a risk of schedule changes or blank sailings?
• Are all potential surcharges clearly included in the quotation?
• Does insurance coverage remain valid in high-risk areas?
• If the ETA is delayed, is there an alternative plan?
• If the cargo cannot move via the original route, what other options are available?
• How will additional costs be handled under the contract with the customer?

This is when businesses need to evaluate the total logistics cost, not just the initial freight rate. A route with a lower rate but higher delay risk, unclear surcharges, or no alternative solution may lead to a much higher actual cost than expected.

Three Layers of Risk Businesses Should Monitor During Hormuz Volatility

1. Route Availability and Operational Risk

A transport route may partially reopen, but that does not guarantee stable operations. Businesses need to monitor port accessibility, maritime safety, vessel movement guidance, actual sailing schedules, and carrier booking policies.

For shipments with strict delivery commitments, relying only on estimated schedules can create significant risk.

2. Cost and Surcharge Risk

Volatility around the Strait of Hormuz can increase transport costs across multiple layers: sea freight, war risk surcharges, fuel surcharges, insurance, rerouting costs, warehousing, container detention, and financing costs caused by delayed arrivals.

Businesses should request more transparent quotations that clearly separate base freight, mandatory surcharges, potential additional charges, and applicable conditions.

3. Delivery Reliability Risk

In an uncertain environment, reliability is not only about whether a vessel is operating. It is also about the ability to provide timely updates, issue early warnings, activate alternative plans, and maintain commitments to end customers.

This is why the role of a freight forwarder is increasingly important. Businesses need a partner that does more than provide freight quotations. They need a partner capable of advising on routes, monitoring market changes, and supporting timely decision-making.

From “One Optimal Route” to a “Portfolio of Transport Corridors”

As highlighted by VLA at the webinar, businesses should not rely entirely on a single route, carrier, transshipment port, or mode of transport.

Instead, they should build a portfolio of transport corridors based on cargo type, target market, urgency level, and risk tolerance.

Several options can be considered:

Traditional Sea Freight Routes

Sea freight remains suitable for large-volume shipments that need cost optimization and are not extremely time-sensitive. However, during periods of Hormuz volatility, businesses need to update vessel schedules, surcharges, and insurance conditions regularly.

Alternative or Rerouted Routes

In some cases, rerouting can help reduce security risks, even if transit time and cost increase. This option should be considered for shipments that require higher levels of safety and delivery reliability.

Sea-Air or Air Freight Solutions

For samples, production components, high-value goods, or urgent orders with strict delivery deadlines, businesses may consider sea-air or air freight. Although the cost is higher, these options can help reduce losses caused by delays, production disruption, or missed business opportunities.

Multimodal Transportation

Combining sea, road, rail, and air transport can help businesses reduce dependency on a single chokepoint. For certain trade lanes, multimodal solutions provide greater flexibility when vessel schedules or transshipment ports change.

Selective Inventory at Key Markets

For critical SKUs, strategic customers, or regular orders, businesses may consider selective inventory planning. In an uncertain environment, inventory is not only a cost, but also a tool to protect service capability.

What Should Vietnamese Businesses Do After June 25?

1. Update Hormuz-Related Shipping Conditions Daily, Not Weekly

Given the current pace of change, logistics information can shift within a few days. Businesses should monitor route status, carrier advisories, new surcharges, insurance conditions, and maritime security alerts on a regular basis.

2. Review Shipments Moving Through or Preparing to Move Through High-Risk Areas

Businesses should classify shipments by urgency: urgent cargo, cargo with strict delivery deadlines, high-value cargo, cargo that can wait, and cargo that can be rerouted. This classification helps speed up decision-making when conditions change.

3. Define Clear Triggers for Alternative Plans

Businesses should set predefined triggers such as the number of days of ETA delay, surcharge increases, demurrage or detention risks, destination port changes, routing changes, or urgent customer delivery requirements.

Once a trigger is reached, the responsible team should be able to activate an alternative plan without spending too much time on approval procedures.

4. Review Logistics and Commercial Contracts

Clauses related to war risk surcharges, fuel surcharges, insurance, force majeure, route changes, port changes, warehousing, returns, and additional cost sharing should be clarified.

During volatile periods, vague contract terms can become a major source of cost and dispute.

5. Work More Closely with Freight Forwarders

Businesses need logistics partners that can update market conditions, advise on alternative routes, coordinate with carriers, handle documentation, control surcharges, and arrange suitable transport solutions for each shipment.

KVN Logistics Supports Businesses During Supply Chain Volatility

With the positioning of a “next-generation logistics solutions partner,” KVN Logistics does not simply provide international freight services. We work alongside businesses to build flexible, safe, and market-responsive logistics plans.

KVN Logistics supports businesses with:

• Transport consulting based on route, timeline, and budget.
• Sea freight solutions for FCL, LCL, and project cargo.
• Air freight services for urgent cargo, samples, and high-value goods.
• Inland trucking connecting ports, warehouses, factories, and industrial zones.
• Railway freight and multimodal transport consulting for suitable routes.
• Customs & docs support to reduce risks in customs clearance and documentation.
• Door-to-door logistics solutions from origin to final destination.
• Shipment tracking, incident updates, and coordination for risk handling during transportation.

As the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Middle East region continue to change, businesses need more than a freight quotation. They need a partner that can assess risks, prepare scenarios, and deliver timely solutions.

Conclusion: Resilience Is the New Competitive Advantage

The developments around the Strait of Hormuz in late June 2026 show that global supply chains are entering a period where geopolitical risk, maritime security, freight volatility, and additional surcharges may become persistent factors.

For import-export businesses, competitiveness no longer depends only on product quality, pricing, or market access. It also depends on the ability to maintain delivery performance under uncertain conditions.

Businesses that proactively build a portfolio of transport corridors, control total logistics costs, review contract terms, and work closely with freight forwarders will be better positioned to protect orders, customers, and market reputation.

With the spirit of “We are the Solution,” KVN Logistics is ready to accompany Vietnamese businesses in building flexible, efficient, and resilient supply chains capable of adapting to new changes in global trade.

FAQ

1. Has the Strait of Hormuz returned to normal operations?

As of June 25, 2026, some vessels have started moving again through the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping activity cannot yet be considered fully normal. Businesses still need to monitor security risks, insurance conditions, vessel schedules, surcharges, and port accessibility.

2. How does volatility in Hormuz affect Vietnamese businesses?

Volatility in the Strait of Hormuz may affect freight rates, surcharges, insurance, vessel schedules, delivery timelines, and the ability to maintain commitments to customers, especially for routes related to the Middle East, Europe, Africa, and international transshipment corridors.

3. Should businesses switch from sea freight to air freight?

Not every shipment needs to switch to air freight. Businesses should consider air freight or sea-air solutions for urgent cargo, samples, production components, high-value goods, or orders with strict delivery deadlines.

4. Why is a portfolio of transport corridors important?

A portfolio of transport corridors helps businesses avoid dependence on a single route. When disruption occurs, businesses can quickly switch to a more suitable option based on cost, time, safety, and reliability.

5. How can KVN Logistics support businesses during Middle East volatility?

KVN Logistics supports businesses with route consulting, market updates, sea freight, air freight, inland trucking, railway freight, customs & docs, and door-to-door solutions, helping businesses manage logistics risks more effectively.

References

• VLA: “Solving the New Supply Chain Challenges Amid Middle East Volatility.”
• EuroCham Webinar: “Re-routing Supply Chains through the Middle East Volatility,” June 23, 2026.
• Reuters: Updates on vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, June 24–25, 2026.