Rising tensions in the Red Sea and the escalating risks at the Strait of Hormuz are placing unprecedented pressure on global supply chains. For Vietnam, these fluctuations directly threaten import-export stability. Businesses must understand the following critical impacts to implement timely response strategies.

1. Skyrocketing Logistics Costs

In the first quarter of 2026, transportation costs have experienced violent fluctuations due to maritime security risks:

• Container Freight Rates: Routes from Vietnam to Europe have surged from $2,000 to over $5,000 per container.

• Surcharges: War Risk Surcharges (WRS) and Emergency Conflict Surcharges are fluctuating between $800 and $4,000.

• Insurance: Marine insurance premiums for transit through sensitive zones have increased by 25–50%.

Furthermore, as tensions spill over into the Strait of Hormuz (the gateway for 20% of global oil), spiking crude prices are driving Bunker Adjustment Factors (BAF) upward, potentially bloating total logistics expenses by another 15–25%.

2. Extended Transit Times Due to Cape Rerouting

To ensure vessel safety, major carriers such as Maersk and MSC are diverting ships around the Cape of Good Hope. This strategic shift brings significant consequences:

• Extended Lead Times: Delivery schedules have increased by 7–15 days.

• Total Journey Duration: Asia–Europe voyages can now reach the 50-day mark.

• Equipment Imbalance: This shift is triggering severe container shortages and a lack of vessel slots at major Vietnamese hubs like Cat Lai and Hai Phong.

3. Vulnerability of the Cold Chain & Strategic Goods

The seafood and fresh produce industries are the most vulnerable. Prolonged transit times increase preservation costs and the risk of cargo spoilage, threatening Vietnam’s agricultural export momentum.

Additionally, the garment and electronics sectors face hardships; component delays can paralyze production lines, eroding the price competitiveness of Vietnamese goods in international markets.

4. Strategic Solutions for Vietnamese Enterprises

Following recommendations from VCCI and the Ministry of Industry and Trade, businesses should proactively take the following steps:

1. Increase Safety Stock: Buffer raw materials to prevent production halts caused by supply chain disruptions.

2. Route Diversification: Explore alternative transport modes, such as Sea-Air or Rail Freight (Eurasia rail) to bypass chokepoints.

3. Active Negotiation: Work closely with partners to establish cost-sharing mechanisms for surcharges.

Expert Consultation: If you require a comprehensive import-export strategy to navigate these turbulent times, KVN Logistics is your trusted partner. We provide flexible routing and real-time risk management to keep your cargo moving.