1. The US – Vietnam’s Largest Export Market
According to VnExpress, the United States remains Vietnam’s largest export market, reaching nearly USD 152 billion in 2025, an increase of more than 28% compared to 2024.
In the first two months of 2026, exports to the US continued to grow strongly:
- Reaching USD 23.8 billion
- Increasing by nearly 22% year-on-year
(Source: Vietnam Customs)
👉 This highlights the strong dependence of Vietnamese businesses on the US market. As a result, any changes in US trade policy can directly impact production, export activities, and logistics operations.
2. The 10% Temporary Tariff – A Short-Term Buffer
According to Cao Thị Phi Vân, Deputy Director of the Investment and Trade Promotion Centre of Ho Chi Minh City (ITPC):
The temporary 10% tariff creates short-term room for businesses to maintain profit margins, reduce immediate pricing pressure, and stabilize delivery plans.
👉 However, this is only a temporary measure within a 150-day window. After this period, businesses may face multiple scenarios with significantly different impacts.
3. Three Export Scenarios After 150 Days
Scenario 1: Trade Agreement (Most Positive)
One possible outcome is a bilateral trade agreement between Vietnam and the US, including:
- Vietnam opening its market to US agricultural products
- Recognition of US automobile standards
- Commitments to increase aircraft purchases from Boeing
In return:
- Many Vietnamese exports may enjoy 0% tariff rates
- Exemption from broader tariff increases
Impact:
- Strong rebound in export demand
- Surge in shipping volume
- Increased pressure on logistics capacity
What businesses should do:
- Secure shipping space early
- Prepare scalable logistics capacity
- Optimize lead times to capture market opportunities
Scenario 2: Tariff Maintained (Neutral)
If the 10% tariff remains unchanged:
Impact:
- Market demand remains stable
- Profit margins are under pressure
What businesses should do:
- Optimize logistics costs
- Flexibly switch between FCL and LCL
- Utilize consolidation solutions
Scenario 3: Tariff Increase (Negative)
If tariffs are increased further:
Impact:
- Decline in US import demand
- Shift of orders to other countries
- Increased inventory and financial pressure
What businesses should do:
- Diversify export markets (Middle East, Africa, Latin America)
- Restructure supply chains
- Optimize transportation costs
4. Key Challenges Businesses Must Address
4.1. Planning
- Build 3–6 month shipment plans
- Align production and logistics schedules
- Avoid capacity shortages
4.2. Cost Management
Logistics costs include:
- Freight rates
- Carrier surcharges
- Storage and delay costs
👉 Businesses should focus on total logistics cost, not just freight rates.
4.3. Flexibility
- Flexible transport routes
- Flexible shipping methods
- Flexible logistics partners
5. Logistics as a Competitive Advantage
In a volatile market environment, logistics plays a critical role in:
- Reducing operational risks
- Controlling costs
- Ensuring delivery timelines
- Maintaining supply chain stability
👉 Businesses with strong logistics strategies gain a clear competitive advantage in global markets.
6. KVN Logistics – Your Flexible Logistics Partner
KVN Logistics provides tailored solutions for each scenario:
Services:
- KVN OceanPro (FCL) – Full Container Load
- KVN LCLConnect (LCL) – Less-than-Container Load
- KVN Master Consolidation – Cost-efficient consolidation
- KVN ProjectCargo – Oversized & project cargo
Capabilities:
- Network of 80+ global agents
- Strong trade lanes: US, Middle East, Africa, Latin America
- Experience across diverse cargo types
Value:
- Cost optimization
- Operational flexibility
- Stability in uncertain markets
👉 KVN Logistics is not just a transporter — we deliver end-to-end logistics solutions.
7. Contact Us
If your business is exporting to the US and needs to:
- Optimize logistics costs
- Improve shipment planning
- Adapt to policy changes
👉 Contact KVN Logistics for tailored solutions.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
How does the 10% US tariff affect Vietnamese businesses?
The temporary 10% tariff helps maintain short-term margins but still creates long-term pressure on costs and competitiveness.
What will happen after the 150-day tariff period?
Three scenarios may occur: a trade agreement, tariff maintenance, or tariff increases — each with different impacts on exports and logistics.
What should businesses prepare for exporting to the US?
Businesses should plan shipments early, optimize logistics costs, diversify markets, and prepare flexible operational strategies.
How does logistics impact export performance?
Logistics directly affects costs, delivery timelines, and supply chain reliability, influencing overall competitiveness.
How can businesses optimize logistics costs?
By choosing the right shipping method (FCL/LCL), using consolidation, and working with capable logistics partners.
